An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Piscivory and prey selection of four predator species in a whitefish dominated subarctic lake

According to logistic regressions derived for pike Esox lucius and burbot Lota lota , the probability of ingesting fishes in Lake Muddusjärvi, northern Finland, was 50% at 19·3 and 22·1 cm L _T, whereas Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus and brown trout Salmo trutta shifted to piscivory at the lengths of 25·7 and 26·4 cm L _T. The specialist piscivores, pike and burbot, consumed more prey species and took a wider range of prey sizes than Arctic charr and brown trout. The prey length for all predators increased in relationship to predator length. Whitefish Coregonus lavaretus was the dominant prey species in the lake and in the diet of all the piscivorous species. The whitefish population was divided into three forms, of which the slow-growing, and the most numerous densely rakered whitefish form (DR), was selected by all predator species. This form also had the smallest average size and widest habitat range, utilizing both pelagic and epibenthic habitats. Two sparsely rakered whitefish forms (LSR and SSR) occupied only epibenthic habitats and had lower relative densities than DR. These forms, LSR and SSR, had a minor importance in the diet of predator species.     

Lasioseius Fimetorum: a soil-dwelling predator of glasshouse pests?

Female lifespan and reproduction, in terms of numberof larvae produced, of the soil-dwelling predatorymite Lasioseius fimetorum Karg (Acari:Podocinidae) fed on mould mites (Tyrophagusputrescentiae [Schrank] [Acarina: Acaridae]) wereinvestigated by laboratory experiments at 20 °C,as were the mite's consumption rates of various prey.After a preoviposition period of 10.7 days, L.fimetorum produced progeny at a daily rate of 0.7.The oviposition period lasted 23.6 days and a total of19.4 progeny were produced per female. Females livedfor 38.6 days. Eggs of the Collembola Isotomurusspp. (Collembola: Isotomidae) were consumed in thelargest amount by L. fimetorum followed by mouldmite nymphs, larvae and pupae of thrips (Frankliniella occidentalis [Pergande] [Thysanoptera:Thripidae]), eggs of the Collembola Micrisotomaspp. (Collembola: Isotomidae), Isotomurus spp.nymphs and sciarid larvae (Bradysia pauperaTuomikoski and B. tritici (Coquillet) [Diptera:Sciaridae]). Immature drain flies (Psychoda spp.[Diptera: Psychodidae]) were not consumed by L.fimetorum. The suitability of L. fimetorum forbiological control of glasshouse pests withsoil-dwelling stages is discussed in comparison withanother predatory mite Hypoaspis miles Berlese(Acarina: Hypoaspididae).     

Avian life-history determinants of local extinction risk in a hyper-fragmented neotropical forest landscape

The fact that species vary in their vulnerability to extinction is well documented, but the reasons for these differences remain poorly understood. Why should some species/families/guilds decline rapidly with increasing anthropogenic disturbance, while others either tolerate or proliferate in disturbed habitats? We investigated the bird species composition in 31 primary forest patches of varying size in a region of the Amazonian 'Arc of Deforestation' and assessed which species life-history traits predisposed individual species to extinction. Medium-sized non-flocking canopy frugivores/ominvores of low primary forest dependence were least likely to go extinct in small patches, while small-bodied flock-following primary-forest-dependent terrestrial insectivores were most fragmentation sensitive. We found highly idiosyncratic relationships between the minimum size of forest patches occupied by different species and their territory size requirements estimated based on other Amazonian studies. This suggests that avian assemblages in forest fragments primarily comprise species that either have good dispersal abilities or are highly tolerant to the non-forest matrix, rather than those whose minimum spatial requirements can be met by the size of available forest fragments.     

Contact sensitization: A new approach to risk assessment

The murine local lymph node assay is a novel predictive test for the identification of skin sensitizing chemicals. The method measures sensitization potential of a chemical in mice as a function of proliferative activity induced in lymph nodes draining the site of topical exposure to that test chemical. Here we describe the use of the local lymph node assay for evaluation of the relative potency of skin sensitizing chemicals via derivation of the concentration required to produce a threshold positive reaction. Subsequently, the development of risk assessments based on comparisons with index contact allergens is outlined.     

Incidence,prevalence, mortality,disability-adjusted life years and risk factors of cancer in Australia and comparison with OECD countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BackgroundComparative evidence on the burden, trend, and risk factors of cancer is limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we aimed to assess cancer burden – incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) – and attributable risk factors for Australia between 1990 and 2015, and to compare them with those of 34 members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).MethodsThe general GBD cancer estimation methods were used with data input from vital registration systems and cancer registries. A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the population-attributable fractions due to risk factors.ResultsIn 2015 there were 198,880 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 183,908–217,365) estimated incident cancer cases and 47,562 (95% UI: 46,061–49,004) cancer deaths in Australia. Twenty-nine percent (95% UI: 28.2–29.8) of total deaths and 17.0% (95% UI: 15.0–19.1) of DALYs were caused by cancer in Australia in 2015. Cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung, colon and rectum, and prostate were the most common causes of cancer deaths. Thirty-six percent (95% UI: 33.1–37.9) of all cancer deaths were attributable to behavioral risks. The age-standardized cancer incidence rate (ASIR) increased between 1990 and 2015, while the age-standardized cancer death rate (ASDR) decreased over the same period. In 2015, compared to 34 other OECD countries Australia ranked first (highest) and 24^th based on ASIR and ASDR, respectively.ConclusionThe incidence of cancer has increased over 25 years, and behavioral risks are responsible for a large proportion of cancer deaths. Scaling up of prevention (using strategies targeting cancer risk factors), early detection, and treatment of cancer is required to effectively address this growing health challenge.     

An inducible morphological defence is a passive by-product of behaviour in a marine snail

Many organisms have evolved inducible defences in response to spatial and temporal variability in predation risk. These defences are assumed to incur large costs to prey; however, few studies have investigated the mechanisms and costs underlying these adaptive responses. I examined the proximate cause of predator-induced shell thickening in a marine snail (Nucella lamellosa) and tested whether induced thickening leads to an increase in structural strength. Results indicate that although predators (crabs) induce thicker shells, the response is a passive by-product of reduced feeding and somatic growth rather than an active physiological response to predation risk. Physical tests indicate that although the shells of predator-induced snails are significantly stronger, the increase in performance is no different than that of snails with limited access to food. Increased shell strength is attributable to an increase in the energetically inexpensive microstructural layer rather than to material property changes in the shell. This mechanism suggests that predator-induced shell defences may be neither energetically nor developmentally costly. Positive correlations between antipredator behaviour and morphological defences may explain commonly observed associations between growth reduction and defence production in other systems and could have implications for the evolutionary potential of these plastic traits.     

The evolution and ecology of masquerade

Many organisms appear to mimic inanimate objects such as twigs, leaves, stones, and bird droppings. Such adaptations are considered to have evolved because their bearers are misidentified as either inedible objects by their predators, or as innocuous objects by their prey. In the past, this phenomenon has been classified by some as Batesian mimicry and by others as crypsis, but now is considered to be conceptually different from both, and has been termed ‘masquerade’. Despite the debate over how to classify masquerade, this phenomenon has received little attention from evolutionary biologists. Here, we discuss the limited empirical evidence supporting the idea that masquerade functions to cause misidentification of organisms, provide a testable definition of masquerade, and suggest how masquerade evolved and under what ecological conditions. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 99 , 1–8.